The brand new speaker has 3 concepts to avert a authorities shutdown. 2 make a stoppage extra probably.
Home Speaker Mike Johnson is at present toggling between totally different concepts relating to how he’ll strategy a looming authorities shutdown deadline.
No matter technique he finally picks may have vital implications on the possibilities of a shutdown truly taking place in simply 11 days.
The approaches that Johnson has taken into consideration embrace a “clear” authorities funding invoice that may be all however assured to sail to President Biden’s desk. However his different concepts — pairing a funding invoice with immigration measures or a novel “laddered” invoice — would probably be blocked by Democrats and make a shutdown more likely.
Johnson is about to solicit enter in a closed-door Home GOP assembly Tuesday the place Republicans are anticipated to hash out their plans.
Johnson has been circumspect thus far however has acknowledged that some kind of short-term answer will likely be wanted as Congress works by its bigger appropriations course of.
“We’re working out of time [and] could not get this executed by November 17,” he said in a press conference final week.
Right here’s how the varied short-term approaches might play out as Washington grapples with one more wave of debt brinkmanship.
A ‘clear CR’ to push the issue to 2024
Clearly, the trail of least resistance could be a easy funding invoice to push the approaching Nov. 17 deadline into subsequent 12 months with none strings connected.
Johnson has personally signaled an openness to this strategy and even campaigned on it throughout his run for speaker. His office distributed a document on the time that laid out a plan for a short-term measure to maintain the federal government working into 2024 with out outlining any coverage calls for he needed in return.
“I might suggest a measure that expires on January 15 or April 15,” he wrote in his letter to colleagues. Final week, he reiterated that plan and zeroed in on Jan. 15 as a possible deadline as his “preliminary concept [to] get us past the Christmas rush.”
The query is whether or not Johnson will push laborious for this bipartisan strategy or whether or not hard-right Republicans will attempt to block him.
It’s price noting what occurred to then-Home Speaker Kevin McCarthy after he pushed through a government funding bill with Democratic support in September. He was promptly ousted by far-right Republicans over that call and different points.
It is much less probably that Home Republicans would try a repeat for Johnson, no less than instantly.
Two approaches demanding concessions — and assured Democratic opposition
Two different approaches on the desk for Johnson would maintain the federal government open however solely in return for Republican priorities that Democrats would virtually absolutely reject.
One strategy being mentioned would attempt to pair authorities funding with GOP wins on the difficulty of immigration. H.R. 2 is a far-reaching GOP immigration invoice that may do issues like reinstate the controversial Trump-era “Stay in Mexico” insurance policies. It’s a invoice that some in Johnson’s caucus need to connect as a situation of retaining the federal government open by the vacations.
However H.R. 2 has already been dominated out by the Democratic-controlled Senate. Immigration is at present the subject of bipartisan Senate negotiations, with even some Republicans concerned in that effort more likely to reject the thought of merely accepting a Home invoice whereas they’re in the midst of a seek for bipartisan compromise.
Johnson might additionally demand different coverage concessions — corresponding to reducing federal spending in return for a two-month stopgap — however that’s virtually sure to be rejected by Majority Chief Chuck Schumer within the Senate.
A 3rd attainable strategy is one thing referred to as a “laddered CR” that was first reportedly floated by Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.). The thought right here is to increase authorities funding for various businesses for various durations of time.
How precisely this ladder would work stays unclear however such a plan would appear to permit lawmakers to favor sure elements of a authorities over others — maybe giving the Pentagon the next rung and liberating enlistees from shutdown worries whereas retaining the specter of shutdown entrance and middle for different areas of presidency.
Johnson advised reporters at a press convention final week he was contemplating the strategy however he hasn’t dedicated.
“I’ll unpack for you what meaning right here within the coming days,” Johnson said at the time.
Both manner, it’s one other strategy virtually sure to be rejected out of hand by Democrats.
What either side appear to agree on is that the principle attraction — relating to authorities funding fights no less than — awaits within the new 12 months. That is when lawmakers purpose to finish the bigger appropriations course of that may maintain the federal government open for the whole fiscal 12 months — or maybe plunge it into an prolonged shutdown.
It stays to be seen how Johnson — who has been within the speaker’s chair lower than two weeks — will strategy the approaching fights when it will get right down to particulars. However he has promised he is prepared for battle sooner or later.
“We’re right here to alter the setting, to alter the paradigm, the best way Washington thinks,” Johnson mentioned just lately.
Ben Werschkul is a Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance.
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