The 1998 North American ice storm will without end be etched within the historical past books for its affect. About 16,000 Canadian Forces personnel have been deployed to help with the wrath that left 3.5 million Quebecers, greater than 1,000,000 Ontarians, and 1000’s within the Maritimes in the dead of night, some for a number of weeks. This was the most important deployment of Canadian navy personnel since its involvement within the Korean Battle.
That ice storm got here throughout an El Niño 12 months—one we’re currently in. So it begs the query, can we anticipate an identical occasion this 12 months?
Earlier than we reply that, it is essential to grasp what substances got here collectively in 1998 to trigger such a disaster.
Unbelievable freezing rain
To correctly clarify the phenomenon, one should perceive the right recipe for an episode of freezing rain. Chilly temperatures are required at very low altitudes. Freezing rain at -5 °C is feasible however very difficult. Upon contact with objects, the water immediately or almost immediately freezes. Consequently, hazard ensues, to not point out the potential injury to the facility grid and infrastructure if sufficient freezing rain accumulates.
The 1998 disaster is memorable: over 100 mm of freezing rain, as much as a month with out electrical energy in sure areas. May such an occasion be repeated in Quebec?
“The Nice Ice Storm of 1998 left an enduring impression on the residents of Quebec,” says MétéoMédia meteorologist Réjean Ouimet. “It’s generally believed that it occurred as a consequence of El Niño. It might be extra correct to state that the freezing rain occurred throughout an El Niño episode. Whether or not it’s a small, medium, or main freezing rain occasion, two important circumstances are required: heat moisture at excessive altitudes and chilly temperatures close to the floor occurring concurrently.”
“El Niño, the principle offender?
In winter when there’s a very intense El Niño close to the coast of Central America, delicate climate strikes up in the direction of Quebec, which turns into an ally for liquid precipitation.
“El Niño has two traits,” explains Réjean Ouimet. “The pretty intense and energetic jet stream makes its approach by the southern United States, which favours the event of storms. Its southern path brings it into contact with very humid, tropical air. The northward trajectory of the jet stream permits delicate air to maneuver up in the direction of Quebec.”
He provides that, “El Niño performed its function in 1998, because it might probably do [again] this winter.”
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A vital factor
Along with El Niño, there was additionally the presence of two excessive strain methods (one in northern Quebec, one other within the Atlantic) in 1998. The mix of those two phenomena performed a vital function in that historic occasion. Firstly, the high-pressure zone within the north pushed chilly air all the way down to the bottom. Then, the one located within the ocean helped create a form of despair hall that repeatedly struck Quebec, whereas pushing heat air in. The right recipe for a number of days of freezing rain.
SEE ALSO: Freezing rain is the ‘worst’ type of precipitation. Here’s why
“Different parts that aren’t typical of El Niño additionally contributed in 1998,” provides Réjean Ouimet. “A excessive strain system within the Atlantic froze the environment and the trajectory of high-level winds for a number of days. The methods have been capable of preserve a relentless orientation. The trajectories favoured the identical kind of precipitation in the identical areas repeatedly (for 5 days). And this isn’t typical of El Niño. Sequential low strain methods have been concerned in 1998. The prevalence of a number of disturbances in a brief time frame is a part of the local weather in North America. It could occur in any season, not solely throughout El Niño.”
Distinctive state of affairs
There’s a chance that such an episode could happen once more, however all of the substances should be in place for it to occur: floor air that’s chilly, aloft air that’s heat, and a parade of moisture-laden methods are the mandatory substances.
Though such a disaster is unlikely to repeat, this 12 months might even see main episodes of freezing rain — simply to not the magnitude of 1998.
Whereas El Niño promotes milder winters in Quebec, it doesn’t essentially imply {that a} storm of the magnitude of 1998 will happen this 12 months — one cause being the unimaginable temperature distinction within the ocean between 1998 vs. 2023.
WATCH | The ’98 ice storm took down 30,000 hydro poles in Quebec alone
