By Jihoon Lee
SEOUL (Reuters) – South Korea’s exports doubtless rose for a second month in November however at a slower tempo amid uncertainty over the worldwide development outlook, a Reuters survey confirmed on Wednesday.
South Korea, a bellwether for world commerce, is the primary main exporting economic system to report month-to-month commerce figures, offering clues on the well being of worldwide demand.
Outbound shipments from Asia’s fourth-biggest economic system are anticipated to have risen 4.7% in November, from the identical month final yr, the median estimate of 20 economists confirmed within the survey carried out on Nov. 21-28.
That may be just a little slower than a rise of 5.1% in October, which was the primary year-on-year acquire in 13 months. Among the many 20 economists, 9 anticipated the expansion fee to speed up however the remaining forecast it to weaken.
“Exports are anticipated to extend for the second straight month with semiconductors swinging to development however it isn’t but a world surroundings that helps a speedy restoration,” mentioned Lee Jeong-hoon, an economist at Eugene Funding Securities.
Within the first 20 days this month, South Korea exported items value 2.2% greater than the yr earlier than. Exports of semiconductors have been on the right track to submit the primary improve since July 2022, rising 2.4%.
By vacation spot, U.S.-bound shipments have been 15.7% greater however exports to China and the European Union fell 2.4% and 4.1%, respectively.
“The moderation of export development we’re seeing within the present quarter helps our questions in regards to the sustainability of a semiconductor-led export restoration given lingering uncertainties in relation to the worldwide financial outlook,” mentioned Oh Suk-tae, an economist at Societe Generale.
The survey additionally confirmed imports doubtless fell 8.6% in November from a yr earlier, after a decline of 9.7% in October, marking the mildest decline in eight months.
That may hold the commerce stability in surplus for the sixth straight month. The median forecast within the survey tipped a month-to-month surplus of $1.30 billion in November, in contrast with $1.63 billion in October.
South Korea is scheduled to report month-to-month commerce figures for November on Friday, Dec. 1, at 9 a.m. (0000 GMT).
(Reporting by Jihoon Lee; Polling by Susobhan Sarkar and Sujith Pai in Bengaluru)
