The massive image: Earlier this yr, issues began wanting extra constructive for the GPU market because it confirmed the primary indicators of restoration after two years of what market analysts are actually calling “the post-Covid” black dying. Graphics card gross sales rose 16.8 p.c in Q3 in comparison with Q2, however organizations like Jon Peddie Analysis are recommending cautious optimism as we head into 2024.
The GPU market remains to be a peculiar mixture of fake deals and good gives. It is fairly tough to navigate for players seeking to construct a brand new rig or improve their growing old graphics card for latest AAA releases like Alan Wake II and Baldur’s Gate 3. As our personal Tim Schiesser identified in his newest GPU pricing update, the one hope is that Nvidia will value its upcoming RTX 40 Tremendous sequence extra sensibly than the common fashions. This may additionally push AMD to regulate pricing for a few of its RX 7000 and RX 6000 sequence playing cards.
Both manner, the GPU market is exhibiting indicators of restoration after two years of provide chain chaos and post-pandemic hangover. Analysts at Jon Peddie Analysis (JPR) are even declaring that “the post-Covid black dying is over,” and their newest report consists of some excellent news for players apprehensive in regards to the generative AI craze and its impact on high-end GPU pricing and availability.
Associated studying: Guide to Choosing a New Graphics Card
Graphics card add-in board shipments already noticed a small rebound within the single digits in the course of the second quarter of this yr, however the 16.3 p.c improve going into the third quarter suggests there’s sufficient momentum for additional restoration within the coming yr.
The determine consists of each discrete and built-in graphics options, however JPR says desktop playing cards had been one of many largest drivers of progress with a 37.4 p.c quarter-over-quarter improve in shipments, which is double that of the general GPU market. Distinction that with the state of affairs final yr when each the CPU and the GPU markets cratered in direction of the second half of the yr, and you may see why business watchers are having a collective sigh of reduction.
Additionally value noting is that Intel and AMD are each chipping away at Nvidia’s market share, although Staff Inexperienced will little question stay dominant within the PC GPU house for years to come back. AMD noticed the most important improve in shipments of the bunch at 36.6 p.c, whereas Nvidia and Intel’s shipments rose 25.2 p.c and 10.4 p.c, respectively. AMD now sits at 17 p.c market share, however in response to JPR that is principally all the way down to a big shift in built-in graphics.
Jon Peddie, the president of JPR, stated that whereas the information appears to point a extra constructive outlook for the GPU market specifically and the PC market as a complete, 2024 is unlikely to be a yr the place we’ll see explosive progress. Peddie requires cautious optimism and explains that the 2008 recession, the crypto-mining growth, and the Covid lockdowns all sparked financial curler coaster rides, and each time the market rebounded to a extra modest stage than earlier than.
PC business watchers are rather more optimistic than JPR regardless of studying the identical indicators of a stabilizing market. A typical view is that Arm-based chipsets from Apple and Qualcomm in addition to next-generation Intel CPUs with neural processing items are going to rejuvenate the market due to the rising variety of functions for generative AI.
On this sea of enthusiasm, there’s one group that believes the business is in for a “cold shower” in 2024, and one has to hope that may result in fewer availability points for enthusiast-level graphics playing cards just like the RTX 4090, the place many Ada GPUs being repurposed for AI infrastructure or purchased in bulk by AI startups.
