MOSCOW (Reuters) – Russia remains to be pumping pure gasoline to Europe through the battle zone in Ukraine. Why?
WHERE DOES THE PIPE GO?
The Soviet-era Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline brings gasoline from western Siberia through Sudzha in Russia’s Kursk area. It then flows by Ukraine within the course of Slovakia.
In Slovakia, the gasoline pipeline is split, one of many branches goes to the Czech Republic, the opposite to Austria. The primary patrons of gasoline are Hungary, Slovakia and Austria.
About 14.65 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gasoline was equipped through Sudzha in 2023, or about half of Russian pure gasoline exports to Europe. EU gasoline consumption fell to 295 bcm in 2023.
Sudzha, simply over the border from Ukraine, is the main target of intense battles between Ukrainian and Russian forces. It’s unclear who controls the city.
Gazprom’s gasoline metering level Sudzha is positioned a number of miles out of the city, nearer to Russian-Ukraininan border.
Russia’s Gazprom stated it will ship 39.6 million cubic metres(mcm) of gasoline to Europe through Ukraine on Monday in comparison with 39.3 mcm on Sunday.
HOW MUCH DOES RUSSIAN SUPPLY TO THE EU?
Russia used to produce a bit underneath half of the European Union’s gasoline earlier than the 2022 Ukraine battle. However Europe has turned away from Russian gasoline whereas as but unexplained assaults on the Nord Stream pipeline have decreased Russian provides.
Russian gasoline has been changed by liquefied pure gasoline (LNG) imports: the US has elevated its slice of the EU gasoline market to 56.2 bcm in 2023 from 18.9 bcm in 2021 whereas Norway grew its share to 87.7 in 2023 from 79.5 bcm in 2021. Different suppliers had been North African nations, Britain and Qatar.
Nobody has taken duty for the September 2022 Nord Stream blasts, which occurred off the Danish island of Bornholm and ruptured three out of 4 traces of the system that delivers Russian gasoline to Europe.
Russia says that the US and Britain had been behind the blasts however has introduced not proof. The New York Occasions and The Washington Submit have reported that Ukraine – which has repeatedly denied involvement, was behind the assault.
Russia equipped a complete of round 63.8 bcm of gasoline to Europe by varied routes in 2022, in keeping with Gazprom information and Reuters calculations. That quantity decreased, by 55.6%, to twenty-eight.3 bcm final yr.
At their peak in 2018-2019, annual flows to the European area reached between 175 bcm and 180 bcm.
WHY DOES RUSSIA STILL SEND GAS VIA UKRAINE?
About half of Russia’s pure gasoline exports to Europe undergo Ukraine.
The primary causes are cash and historical past.
Gazprom, which holds about 16% of worldwide gasoline reserves and employs almost half one million folks, was as soon as certainly one of Russia’s strongest company empires – so highly effective it was often called “a state inside the state”.
However it has fallen on exhausting occasions as a result of lack of the European gasoline market.
The corporate plunged to a internet lack of 629 billion roubles in 2023, its first annual loss in additional than 20 years, amid dwindling gasoline commerce with Europe, as soon as its major gross sales market.
Ukraine, as soon as an integral a part of the Soviet Union, additionally earns cash from the transit.
WILL THE TRANSIT CONTINUE?
In December 2019, Moscow and Kyiv signed a long-term five-year settlement for the transit of Russian gasoline through Ukraine: 45 bcm in 2020 and 40 bcm per yr in 2021-2024. The settlement on Russian gasoline transit to Europe by Ukraine expires in 2024, and Kyiv has stated it has no intention of extending it or concluding a brand new deal.
Russia is able to proceed gasoline provides to Europe through Ukraine after the present transit settlement expires on the finish of 2024, Russian state information businesses reported final month, citing Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak.
In Could 2022, Ukraine stopped receiving transit gasoline by the Sokhranovka station with a capability of 30 million cubic meters per day, citing pressure majeure and proposing to switch all transit volumes to Sudzha.
The one different operational pipeline path to Europe is Turkstream underneath the Black Sea.
(Reporting by Man Faulconbridge; modifying by David Evans)
