By Samia Nakhoul and Laila Bassam
DUBAI/BEIRUT (Reuters) – Iran’s Supreme Chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned Hezbollah chief Syyed Hassan Nasrallah to flee Lebanon days earlier than he was killed in an Israeli strike and is now deeply frightened about Israeli infiltration of senior authorities ranks in Tehran, three Iranian sources stated.
Within the speedy aftermath of the assault on Hezbollah’s booby-trapped pagers on Sept. 17, Khamenei despatched a message with an envoy to beseech the Hezbollah secretary common to depart for Iran, citing intelligence reviews that advised Israel had operatives inside Hezbollah and was planning to kill him, one of many sources, a senior Iranian official, informed Reuters.
The messenger, the official stated, was a senior Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander, Brigadier Common Abbas Nilforoushan, who was with Nasrallah in his bunker when it was hit by Israeli bombs and was additionally killed.
Khamenei, who has remained in a safe location inside Iran since Saturday, personally ordered a barrage of round 200 missiles to be fired at Israel on Tuesday, a senior Iranian official stated. The assault was retaliation for the deaths of Nasrallah and Nilforoushan, the Revolutionary Guards stated in an announcement.
The assertion additionally cited the July killing of Hamas Chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, and Israel’s assaults on Lebanon. Israel has not claimed duty for Haniyeh’s demise.
Israel on Tuesday started what it labelled as a “restricted” floor incursion in opposition to Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.
Iran’s international ministry and the workplace of Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which oversees the nation’s international intelligence company Mossad, didn’t reply to requests for remark.
Nasrallah’s assassination adopted two weeks of exact Israeli strikes which have destroyed weapons websites, eradicated half of Hezbollah’s management council and decimated its prime navy command.
Iran’s fears for the security of Khamenei and the lack of belief, inside each Hezbollah and Iran’s institution and between them, emerged within the conversations with 10 sources for this story, who described a scenario that might complicate the efficient functioning of Iran’s Axis of Resistance alliance of anti-Israel irregular armed teams.
Based with Iran’s backing the Nineteen Eighties, Hezbollah has lengthy been essentially the most formidable member of the alliance.
The disarray can be making it exhausting for Hezbollah to decide on a brand new chief, fearing the continued infiltration will put the successor in danger, 4 Lebanese sources stated.
“Mainly, Iran misplaced the most important funding it had for the previous many years,” stated Magnus Ranstorp, a Hezbollah professional on the Swedish Protection College, of the deep injury brought on to Hezbollah that he stated diminished Iran’s capability to strike at Israel’s borders.
“It shook Iran to the core. It exhibits how Iran is deeply infiltrated additionally: they not solely killed Nasrallah, they killed Nilforoushan,” he stated, who was a trusted navy adviser to Khamenei.
Hezbollah’s misplaced navy capability and management cadre may push Iran in direction of the kind of assaults in opposition to Israeli embassies and personnel overseas that it engaged in additional ceaselessly earlier than the rise of its proxy forces, Ranstorp stated.
IRAN MAKES ARRESTS
Nasrallah’s demise has prompted Iranian authorities to totally examine attainable infiltrations inside Iran’s personal ranks, from the highly effective Revolutionary Guards to senior safety officers, a second senior Iranian official stated. They’re particularly targeted on those that journey overseas or have kinfolk residing exterior Iran, the primary official stated.
Tehran grew suspicious of sure members of the Guards who had been touring to Lebanon, he stated. Issues had been raised when one among these people started asking about Nasrallah’s whereabouts, significantly inquiring about how lengthy he would stay in particular areas, the official added.
The person has been arrested together with a number of others, the primary official stated, after alarm was raised in Iran’s intelligence circles. The suspect’s household had relocated exterior Iran, the official stated, with out figuring out the suspect or his kinfolk.
The second official stated the assassination has unfold distrust between Tehran and Hezbollah, and inside Hezbollah.
“The belief that held every part collectively has disappeared,” the official stated.
The Supreme Chief “not trusts anybody,” stated a 3rd supply who’s near Iran’s institution.
Alarm bells had already rung inside Tehran and Hezbollah about attainable Mossad infiltrations after the killing in July of Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in an Israeli airstrike on a secretive Beirut location whereas assembly an IRGC commander, two Hezbollah sources and a Lebanese safety official informed Reuters on the time. That killing was adopted a number of hours later by the assassination of Hamas chief Haniyeh in Tehran.
In contrast to Haniyeh’s demise, Israel publicly claimed duty for the killing of Shukr, a low-profile determine who Nasrallah nonetheless described, at his funeral, as a central determine in Hezbollah’s historical past who had constructed its most essential capabilities.
Shukr was key to the event of Hezbollah’s most superior weaponary, together with precision-guided missiles, and was in control of the Shi’ite teams operations in opposition to Israel over the previous 12 months, Israel’s navy has stated.
Iranian fears about Israeli penetration of its higher ranks stretches again years. In 2021, former Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad stated the top of an Iranian intelligence unit that was supposed to focus on brokers of Mossad had himself been an agent for the Israeli spy company, telling CNN Turk that Israel obtained delicate paperwork on Iran’s nuclear programme, a reference to a 2018 raid by which Israel obtained an enormous trove of prime secret paperwork in regards to the programme.
Additionally in 2021, Israel’s outgoing spy chief Yossi Cohen gave particulars in regards to the raid, telling the BBC that 20 non-Israeli Mossad brokers had been concerned in stealing the archive from a warehouse.
PAGER WARNING
Khamenei’s invitation to Nasrallah to relocate to Iran got here after hundreds of pagers and walkie talkies utilized by Hezbollah blew up in lethal assaults on Sept 17 and 18, the primary official stated. The assaults have been broadly attributed to Israel, though it has not formally claimed duty.
Nasrallah, nonetheless, was assured in his safety and trusted his interior circle fully, the official stated, regardless of Tehran’s critical issues about potential infiltrators inside Hezbollah’s ranks.
Khamenei tried a second time, relaying one other message by way of Nilforoushan to Nasrallah final week, imploring him to depart Lebanon and relocate to Iran as a safer location. However Nasrallah insisted on staying in Lebanon, the official stated.
A number of high-level conferences had been held in Tehran following the pager blasts to debate Hezbollah and Nasrallah’s security, the official stated, however declined to say who attended these conferences.
Concurrently, in Lebanon, Hezbollah started conducting a significant investigation to purge Israeli spies amongst them, questioning a whole bunch of members after the pager detonations, three sources in Lebanon informed Reuters.
Sheikh Nabil Kaouk, a senior Hezbollah official, was main the investigation, a Hezbollah supply stated. The probe was progressing quickly, the supply stated, earlier than an Israeli raid killed him a day after Nasrallah’s assassination. One other raid earlier final week had focused different senior Hezbollah commanders, a few of who had been concerned within the inquiry.
Kaouk had summoned for questioning Hezbollah officers concerned in logistics and others “who participated, mediated and acquired presents on pagers and walkie-talkies,” the supply stated.
A “deeper and complete inquiry” and purge had been now wanted after the killing of Nasrallah and different commanders, the supply stated.
Ali al-Amin, the editor-in-chief for Janoubia, a information website primarily based that focuses on the Shi’ite group and Hezbollah stated reviews indicated that Hezbollah detained a whole bunch of individuals for questioning after the pagers saga.
Hezbollah is reeling from Nasrallah’s killing in his deep bunker in a command HQ, shocked at how efficiently Israel penetrated the group, seven sources stated.
Mohanad Hage Ali, deputy analysis director of the Carnegie Center East Middle in Beirut with a deal with Iran and Hezbollah, described the offensive as “the most important intelligence infiltration by Israel” since Hezbollah was based with Iran’s backing within the Nineteen Eighties.
The present Israeli escalation follows nearly a 12 months of cross-border preventing after Hezbollah started rocket assaults in assist of its ally Hamas. The Palestinian group killed 1,200 individuals and seized 250 hostages in an assault on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, in keeping with Israeli tallies.
In Gaza, Israel’s retaliation has killed greater than 41,000 Palestinians, in keeping with the Gaza well being ministry.
LOSS OF TRUST
The Israeli offensive and concern of extra assaults on Hezbollah have additionally prevented the Iranian-backed group from organizing a nationwide funeral on a scale reflecting Nasrallah’s spiritual and management standing, in keeping with 4 sources accustomed to the controversy inside Hezbollah.
“Nobody can authorize a funeral in these circumstances,” one Hezbollah supply stated, lamenting the scenario by which officers and non secular leaders couldn’t come ahead to correctly honor the late chief.
A number of commanders killed final week had been buried discreetly on Monday, with plans for a correct spiritual ceremony when the battle ends.
Hezbollah is mulling the choice of securing a non secular decree to bury Nasrallah briefly and maintain an official funeral when the scenario permits, the 4 Lebanese sources stated.
Hezbollah has shunned formally appointing a successor to Nasrallah, probably to keep away from making his alternative a goal for an Israeli assassination, they stated.
“Appointing a brand new Secretary Common could possibly be harmful if Israel assassinates him proper after,” stated Amin. “The group cannot danger extra chaos by appointing somebody solely to see them killed.”
(Further reporting by Ahmed Tolba, writing by Samia Nakhoul; Modifying by Frank Jack Daniel)
